Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:59:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xcc36…53c3 sports 909 markets active 1h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,509 (-10%) realized −$11,469 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate72%645W / 252L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$262est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$3,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$23
14 days−$18
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$180
sports 28% −$7,497
crypto 23% +$493
world 14% −$5,077
finance 3% +$22
politics 3% −$59
weather 1% +$1
tech 0% +$26
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -31.2% -37.8% 50% 40% -7.6%
≤30d 77 -7.3% -16.2% 57% 38% -7.7%
≤90d 292 -6.9% -15.8% 68% 30% -21.9%
all 897 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 40% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 40% -19.5%
10% -20.8% 28% -27.2%
15% -28.4% 21% -34.2%
20% -35.4% 16% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$83 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$3,047
Realized−$11,469
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses645 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$262
Open positions8
Markets (closed)897 / 909
History coverage638d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 897 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $1,812 $1,738 −$74 (-4%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $1,188 $1,203 +$15 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Gill (+1.5) Jodar 72¢ 92¢ $75 $96 +$21 (+28%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 231 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $32 −$31 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $56 +$35 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $607 +$377 +62%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $212 −$210 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $996 −$991 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $403 −$400 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $213 −$210 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $65 −$65 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $203 +$241 +119%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $147 +$137 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $232 +$111 +48%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $262 −$229 -87%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $203 +$45 +22%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $2 +$8 +344%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $152 −$150 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $252 +$115 +46%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $91 −$90 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $292 +$94 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $202 +$96 +48%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $81 −$80 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $172 +$94 +54%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $102 +$184 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $202 +$40 +20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $36 +$39 +109%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 44¢ $5 1h
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Gill (+1.5) BUY Jodar 72¢ $76 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 68¢ $32 24h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $56 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $607 2d
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Fabian Marozsan 31¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $212 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 26¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 72¢ $15 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 11d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 40¢ $9 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $7 11d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 36¢ $25 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 31¢ $6 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $996 14d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 75¢ $403 14d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 53¢ $213 15d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 14¢ $51 15d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 64¢ $65 15d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $203 16d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $147 16d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $343 16d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $232 16d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 9¢ $33 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,046.54 · official $3,051.45 (match) · 1752 history records