Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CC 0xcc40…6ae3 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$225 (+9%) realized +$119 · open +$106
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$337
crypto 26% −$286
other 22% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.7% -14.7% 33% 25% -12.3%
≤30d 12 -5.7% -14.7% 33% 25% -12.3%
≤90d 12 -5.7% -14.7% 33% 25% -12.3%
all 12 -5.7% -14.7% 33% 25% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 25% -12.3%
10% -22.8% 8% -20.7%
15% -30.3% 8% -28.3%
20% -37.1% 8% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$64 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 33¢ 50¢ $200 $307 +$107 (+54%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Deep Cross Gaming 65¢ 54¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $233 −$233 -100%
Hurkacz vs. Altmaier: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $47 +$9 +19%
O'Connell vs. Clarke: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $253 +$47 +19%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $624 −$118 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $211 −$122 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $222 +$400 +180%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Set 2 Winner: Li vs Birrell Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $30 −$1 -5%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BUY 57¢ $289 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
BUY 57¢ $144 2h
BUY 57¢ $31 3h
BUY 57¢ $130 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 27¢ $217 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $57 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $22 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $52 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 29¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down $89 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 33¢ $200 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.28 · official $311.28 (match) · 57 history records