Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CC 0xcc41…6b74 sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$57 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$422
other 44% −$361
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.4% -13.5% 22% 22% -1.9%
≤30d 9 -4.4% -13.5% 22% 22% -1.9%
≤90d 9 -4.4% -13.5% 22% 22% -1.9%
all 9 -4.4% -13.5% 22% 22% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 22% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 22% -11.3%
15% -29.3% 22% -19.8%
20% -36.2% 22% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$419 vs −$105 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $98 $91 −$7 (-8%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 15¢ 8¢ $88 $50 −$38 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $419 −$6 -2%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $103 −$91 -88%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 25 $195 −$190 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $204 +$487 +238%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $168 −$165 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $113 +$351 +312%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $100 11m
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 15¢ $90 14m
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 16¢ $195 34m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 51m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 73¢ $402 57m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $215 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 8¢ $103 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $12 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 1h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 95¢ $501 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 19¢ $102 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $103 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 0¢ $2 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 9¢ $82 3h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 60¢ $191 4h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 31¢ $102 4h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $168 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $464 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $113 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.38 · official $140.85 (match) · 22 history records