Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc44…c813 crypto 313 markets active 3h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate62%191W / 119L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$840per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$486
14 days−$374
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$266
other 2% −$582
sports 1% +$81
world 0% −$17
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.2% -8.5% 54% 30% -18.0%
≤30d 85 -0.2% -9.7% 49% 20% -12.7%
≤90d 161 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 23% -19.1%
all 310 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 26% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 26% -9.6%
10% -20.8% 12% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$100 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses191 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)310 / 313
History coverage153d
Avg bet$840
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 +$15 +36%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 −$5 -10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 +$7 +18%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 17 $10 +$29 +287%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $80 −$4 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 $0 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $122 −$121 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $29 +$9 +30%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $33 −$3 -10%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $27 $0 -2%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 15 $45 −$9 -19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $228 −$226 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,053 −$313 -30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $77 −$53 -68%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $45 −$4 -9%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $543 +$35 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $501 +$42 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 −$63 -89%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $541 +$32 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $411 +$54 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Jun 14 $20 −$10 -47%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $180 +$31 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $279 +$2 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 +$7 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $88 +$34 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $267 +$12 +5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 $0 +1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$11 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $390 +$17 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $361 +$29 +8%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 10 $357 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $356 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $258 +$42 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $56 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $56 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $41 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 70¢ $41 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $46 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $46 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $45 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $25 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $13 18h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $20 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 94¢ $24 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $20 32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will BUY 4¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $67 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 66¢ $19 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 74¢ $21 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $21 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $122 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $38 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 4d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $27 4d
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $36 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $29 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $29 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $197 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $197 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $25 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $25 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $32 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.64 · official $55.64 (match) · 1183 history records