Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc48…05bb sports 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$299 (-5%) realized −$299 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate60%53W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$113
14 days+$122
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$304
other 11% +$48
world 3% −$7
politics 1% +$1
weather 0% −$10
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +12.8% +2.0% 67% 67% +11.8%
≤30d 87 -18.7% -26.4% 59% 41% -15.5%
≤90d 89 -17.6% -25.5% 60% 43% -13.7%
all 89 -17.6% -25.5% 60% 43% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 43% -13.7%
10% -32.6% 30% -22.0%
15% -39.1% 20% -29.5%
20% -45.1% 8% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$38 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses53 / 36
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage31d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $178 +$94 +53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $85 −$64 -75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $87 +$45 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $87 +$41 +48%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $13 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$8 +158%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $13 −$8 -60%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $98 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $90 +$12 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $97 +$11 +12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $96 +$5 +5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $164 +$21 +13%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $75 +$23 +30%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 10 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $575 +$46 +8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $95 +$24 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $96 +$13 +13%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 06 $96 +$28 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $96 +$24 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $98 +$25 +25%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $66 −$21 -32%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $59 +$7 +12%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 01 $54 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $48 +$5 +11%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $45 +$3 +7%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $42 +$3 +8%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $39 +$3 +7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $36 +$3 +7%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $32 +$5 +14%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoff May 31 $29 +$2 +8%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 31 $29 $0 -1%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange May 31 $30 $0 -1%
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia le May 31 $28 +$1 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner May 30 $183 −$183 -100%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 30 $156 −$156 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $272 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $178 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 18¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $83 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $132 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $87 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $128 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 67¢ $87 27h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Yannick Hanfmann 100¢ $15 3d
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 87¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 38¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $13 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $7 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 100¢ $7 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $98 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $102 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 88¢ $90 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 88¢ $108 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 78¢ $97 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $101 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 95¢ $96 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 83¢ $117 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 48¢ $69 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Global Esports 55¢ $68 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Global Esports 76¢ $0 8d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Global Esports 76¢ $54 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records