Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CC 0xcc48…c120 sports 401 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,744 (+5%) realized +$7,918 · open −$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%242W / 156L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day52.5pace
Fees−$1,486est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,448
7 days+$2,270
14 days+$4,102
30 days+$9,436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$9,961
other 11% −$149
world 1% −$163
crypto 1% −$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +16.9% +5.8% 56% 56% -4.6%
≤30d 375 +9.4% -1.0% 60% 60% -3.2%
≤90d 398 +8.9% -1.5% 61% 59% -3.3%
all 398 +8.9% -1.5% 61% 59% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 59% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 57% -12.6%
15% -19.5% 46% -21.0%
20% -27.4% 35% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$297 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized+$7,918
Unrealized−$174
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses242 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,486
Open positions3
Markets (closed)398 / 401
History coverage34d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 26¢ $434 $312 −$122 (-28%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 18¢ 8¢ $89 $37 −$51 (-58%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $28 +$52 +186%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $182 +$157 +86%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 20 $39 +$36 +93%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $306 +$294 +96%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $671 +$429 +64%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $726 +$374 +52%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $803 +$297 +37%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $801 +$298 +37%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $130 −$130 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $90 −$30 -33%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 20 $65 +$77 +119%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $282 +$318 +113%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $627 +$473 +75%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $126 −$126 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $396 −$396 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $771 +$313 +41%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $72 −$72 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $693 −$693 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $264 +$336 +127%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,273 +$921 +72%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $152 −$152 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $144 −$144 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $646 +$454 +70%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $69 +$231 +335%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $770 −$770 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $178 +$392 +221%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $228 −$228 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) Jun 18 $258 +$342 +133%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2,310 −$302 -13%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-10.5) Jun 18 $138 −$138 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $2 +$3 +117%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $517 −$517 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $474 +$342 +72%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,320 +$880 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 +$91 +1011%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 18 $288 −$288 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $264 −$264 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,606 +$594 +37%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $748 +$308 +41%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $787 −$781 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,226 −$1,210 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $117 +$85 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $803 +$297 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $18 0m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $19 0m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 0m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 41¢ $41 0m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $42 1m
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 39¢ $34 2m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 39¢ $3 2m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 39¢ $2 2m
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2m
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $58 8m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $62 11m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $6 20m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 20m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $4 21m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 21m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $6 23m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $28 23m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $19 24m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $21 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $0 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $27 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.36 · official $377.23 · 2095 history records