Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xcc48…bab5 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,284 (-3%) realized −$1,516 · open +$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate70%32W / 14L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$909per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$211
14 days+$374
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$1,327
politics 17% −$895
other 1% +$1
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 12% -6.2%
≤30d 31 -0.8% -10.3% 74% 23% -9.7%
≤90d 46 -3.4% -12.6% 70% 24% -9.1%
all 46 -3.4% -12.6% 70% 24% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 24% -9.1%
10% -21.0% 13% -17.8%
15% -28.6% 7% -25.7%
20% -35.6% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,121) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$159 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$2,633
Realized−$1,516
Unrealized+$232
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses32 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage77d
Avg bet$909
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 75¢ 88¢ $1,200 $1,400 +$200 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1,200 $1,233 +$33 (+3%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 94¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $2,790 +$143 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 25 $1,117 +$13 +1%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 23 $1 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $1,121 +$4 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $3 $0 +11%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3% Jun 21 $752 +$51 +7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $595 +$37 +6%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $8 +$4 +54%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,005 +$132 +13%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $311 −$10 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 17 $1,770 −$5 -0%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $294 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $24 +$4 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $2,018 −$421 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,250 +$3 +0%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 11 $100 −$46 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $2,000 +$58 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $2,316 −$238 -10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $308 +$160 +52%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1,013 −$384 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,415 +$146 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $2,328 +$44 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Jun 05 $15 −$8 -55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $1,091 +$47 +4%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $1,006 +$184 +18%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,006 −$987 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,157 +$994 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $3,006 +$40 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,787 +$219 +8%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,099 +$80 +7%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $2 −$1 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $277 +$4 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $2 $0 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $200 +$17 +8%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? Apr 30 $101 −$101 -100%
The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office Apr 27 $120 −$2 -2%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 26 $124 −$4 -3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 26 $18 +$9 +48%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 23 $54 +$13 +25%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 23 $3 +$1 +32%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 18 $15 −$12 -83%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Apr 17 $20 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,200 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,201 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1,131 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $1,130 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $1,200 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $1,200 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $1,149 5d
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 90¢ $1 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL No 96¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $11 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $1,125 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $1,121 6d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 100¢ $321 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,117 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $10 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 8d
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 86¢ $1 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 94¢ $301 10d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $301 10d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $311 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 95¢ $311 10d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 64¢ $8 10d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3% BUY No 93¢ $752 10d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,005 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,765 10d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 90¢ $294 11d
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,770 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,633.03 · official $2,649.03 (match) · 128 history records