Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xcc4b…0da9 sports 765 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$608 (-5%) realized −$609 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%339W / 423L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$281
14 days−$545
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$519
crypto 11% −$101
other 9% −$98
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -31.3% -37.8% 27% 24% -34.7%
≤30d 252 -24.9% -32.1% 35% 31% -14.6%
≤90d 762 -9.4% -18.1% 44% 38% -15.0%
all 762 -9.4% -18.1% 44% 38% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 38% -15.0%
10% -25.9% 30% -23.1%
15% -33.1% 24% -30.6%
20% -39.6% 21% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$609
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses339 / 423
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions2
Markets (closed)762 / 765
History coverage80d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 762 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 72¢ $35 $51 +$16 (+47%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 +$15 +499%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$19 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +255%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $15 +$6 +38%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$26 +510%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$15 +145%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -52%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $25 +$6 +22%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $35 +$10 +29%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $6 −$5 -82%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $18 +$1 +7%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 76¢ $35 4h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 55¢ $5 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 17h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes $1 17h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 19h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $5 27h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 27h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $20 38h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $15 39h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $5 40h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $30 40h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 40h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $5 41h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 42h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 42h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $3 42h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 29¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.36 · official $51.36 (match) · 1934 history records