Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc4c…0bd9 other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$2
other 30% −$1
politics 19% $0
crypto 12% +$4
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -3.5% -12.7% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -13.1% -21.4% 10% 0% -10.8%
all 31 -3.4% -12.6% 39% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 6% -9.5%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage403d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 61¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will MOUZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Auckland City beat Benfica? Jun 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $21 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20? Jun 19 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 18 $28 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 375–399 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of Ne Jun 09 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 07 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $41 29m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $42 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $27 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $6 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $38 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $1 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $37 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $39 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $39 17d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 184d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $11 361d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $7 361d
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $9 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records