Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xcc4c…8c1f
weather · 132 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$43 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$66
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$390
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions130
Markets (closed)2 / 132
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day192.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 130 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 81¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+722%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 62¢ 46¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 82¢ 84¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 76¢ 76¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? No 84¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+524%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? No 69¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? No 77¢ 68¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? No 34¢ 37¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? No 72¢ 64¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 67¢ 64¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? No 85¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+455%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 94¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 15? No 95¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? No 96¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? No 67¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 97¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 98¢ 96¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? No 76¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 67¢ 60¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $3 29m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $4 30m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $3 31m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $4 48m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $4 50m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 34¢ $6 51m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 52m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 100¢ $5 53m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 2 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover192.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 0% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.81 · official $389.83 (match) · 192 history records