Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc57…814e other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$22
14 days−$40
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$97
sports 25% −$18
other 23% −$24
crypto 7% −$7
world 3% −$2
finance 3% −$5
economics 2% −$2
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 64 -1.0% -10.4% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 102 -1.3% -10.7% 9% 0% -10.4%
all 120 -1.2% -10.6% 10% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage101d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $55 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $159 −$4 -3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $107 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $949 −$2 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $177 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $285 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $318 −$3 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 −$2 -3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $275 −$6 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $230 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Jun 10 $36 −$4 -12%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $21 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $129 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $46 −$2 -5%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $66 −$1 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $551 −$3 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $283 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $246 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $99 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $96 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 1h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $13 2h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $13 6h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 6h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 6h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 13h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $58 14h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $58 21h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $36 22h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $36 27h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $49 27h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $49 34h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $63 35h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $63 43h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $60 44h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $61 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $45 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $45 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $45 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $51 3d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $51 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $53 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $52 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $47 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $48 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.99 · official $59.99 (match) · 480 history records