Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CC 0xcc58…1dff crypto 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,758 (-4%) realized −$1,938 · open +$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%93W / 110L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$6,670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5,457
14 days+$6,034
30 days−$2,178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1,184
sports 25% +$6,930
politics 20% −$8,675
crypto 15% +$390
other 3% −$66
tech 1% +$60
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +42.1% +28.6% 80% 80% +24.7%
≤30d 109 -70.1% -72.9% 17% 14% -15.6%
≤90d 109 -70.1% -72.9% 17% 14% -15.6%
all 203 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 44% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 44% -10.4%
10% -21.1% 40% -19.0%
15% -28.7% 38% -26.8%
20% -35.7% 33% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +73% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$121 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$6,670
Realized−$1,938
Unrealized+$180
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses93 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions1
Markets (closed)203 / 204
History coverage221d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $6,489 $6,670 +$180 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9,000 +$1,067 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $155 +$145 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $200 −$199 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $468 +$569 +122%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4,618 +$3,874 +84%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $332 +$532 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 05 $129 +$60 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 05 $103 +$93 +90%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andres Martin Jun 04 $28 −$27 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $458 −$450 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $230 −$225 -98%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2025-11-21? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during the McDonald's Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Latvia win on 2025-11-16? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Rockets Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Penguins Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Utah vs. Ducks Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Bills Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during t Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-09? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2025-11-09? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Warriors vs. Heat Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Stars vs. Canadiens Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 04 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Lakers vs. Hornets Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $350 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $161 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $955 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $5,000 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $10,067 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $9,000 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,669.61 · official $6,669.61 (match) · 638 history records