Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CC 0xcc59…fce1 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,593 (+6%) realized +$2,611 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%44W / 68L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$1,232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 614d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$4,093
world 12% +$488
politics 10% +$1,757
crypto 8% +$524
tech 2% +$272
sports 2% +$415
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.3% -21.6% 50% 50% +14.4%
≤30d 25 +6.3% -3.8% 56% 56% +5.6%
≤90d 45 -24.8% -32.0% 44% 33% -13.9%
all 112 -11.3% -19.7% 39% 30% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 30% -10.9%
10% -27.4% 27% -19.4%
15% -34.4% 23% -27.2%
20% -40.9% 20% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$133 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$1,232
Realized+$2,611
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses44 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage614d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $500 $537 +$37 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $500 $442 −$58 (-12%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,262 +$593 +47%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $300 +$371 +124%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $325 −$325 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$314 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $252 +$95 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $254 −$196 -77%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 +$185 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $252 −$250 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 +$77 +216%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 −$202 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $253 +$148 +59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $340 −$253 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $485 −$188 -39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $251 +$43 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $506 +$229 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $253 +$201 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $15 +$11 +70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $3,662 +$1,152 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $2,635 −$558 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $1,500 +$191 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $2,623 +$3 +0%
Big Game: Coin Toss Apr 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Apr 11 $532 +$22 +4%
Will JD Vance's fundraiser not air? Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual G Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1,000 −$999 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $372 −$312 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $3,085 +$215 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 04 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $4,044 +$49 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $300 −$299 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 28 $300 −$299 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $518 +$26 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $480 +$20 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his Mar 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $254 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 38h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $52 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $253 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $514 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $671 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $325 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $60 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $58 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $300 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $252 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $254 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $252 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $253 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $81 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $124 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 15¢ $87 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 51¢ $297 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $253 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 85¢ $251 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 68¢ $506 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $253 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,231.99 · official $1,231.99 (match) · 643 history records