Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xcc5b…5443 sports 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,462 (-11%) realized −$12,916 · open −$546
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%150W / 132L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$436per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$1,622est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$498
7 days+$1,111
14 days−$7,094
30 days−$7,780
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$15,408
other 5% +$106
world 3% −$1
finance 2% −$211
crypto 1% +$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +15.9% +4.8% 72% 64% +11.6%
≤30d 137 -10.0% -18.6% 53% 49% -23.0%
≤90d 282 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 45% -20.4%
all 282 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 45% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 45% -20.4%
10% -25.4% 40% -28.1%
15% -32.6% 35% -35.0%
20% -39.2% 31% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$508) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$421 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$12,916
Unrealized−$546
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses150 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,622
Open positions1
Markets (closed)282 / 283
History coverage83d
Avg bet$436
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 282 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 58¢ 18¢ $780 $234 −$546 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 −$200 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $201 +$37 +18%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5 Jun 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $577 +$406 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $265 +$35 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$188 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $201 +$55 +27%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$72 +36%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $201 +$32 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 +$28 +27%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $250 +$250 +100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $401 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $122 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $431 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 14 $352 +$90 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $282 −$280 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $204 +$284 +140%
Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5) Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Hungary 2 - 1 Kazakhstan? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 12 $304 −$304 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $507 −$507 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 Jun 12 $507 −$507 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 12 $507 −$507 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5) Jun 12 $507 −$507 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 59¢ $202 50m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $587 1h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Chicago Sky 98¢ $100 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $201 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $577 11h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 50¢ $13 13h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 50¢ $37 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $265 27h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 35h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 35h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $201 35h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $102 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $55 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.32 · official $615.93 · 800 history records