Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc5c…1df3 world 99 markets active 9d ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%35W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$15
other 25% −$1
politics 17% $0
sports 13% −$4
crypto 3% −$4
economics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 20 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 64 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 5% -10.2%
all 96 -3.0% -12.2% 36% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -10.3%
10% -20.6% 1% -18.9%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses35 / 61
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 99
History coverage536d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $33 −$3 -8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $18 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $92 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $18 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $62 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $65 −$20 -31%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $3 −$1 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri May 18 $4 $0 -2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $24 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $28 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 -7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $72 −$2 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $29 $0 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $75 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $16 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $16 9d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 9d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $18 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $15 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $18 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $18 14d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $20 14d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $20 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $18 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $18 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $20 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $20 15d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $19 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $18 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $18 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $18 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $18 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.28 · official $3.00 (match) · 358 history records