Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:31:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc67…d229 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$232 (-46%) realized −$232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%6W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$30
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$67
other 8% −$26
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -36.8% -42.9% 14% 14% -4.0%
≤30d 38 -30.0% -36.7% 16% 16% -2.4%
≤90d 38 -30.0% -36.7% 16% 16% -2.4%
all 38 -30.0% -36.7% 16% 16% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 16% -2.4%
10% -42.7% 16% -11.7%
15% -48.3% 16% -20.3%
20% -53.3% 16% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$12 · ×5.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses6 / 32
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage9d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $66 +$284 +428%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $33 −$32 -96%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 +$27 +321%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$15 +361%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$21 +259%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 +$78 +468%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $350 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $66 4h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 8h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 29h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 29h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 31h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $33 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $66 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $66 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $33 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 5d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $33 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.12 · official $3.12 (match) · 76 history records