Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

CC 0xcc6c…aae5 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 438d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$634 (+60%) realized +$634 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +59% what you keep after slip

Net edge+59%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$10

7 days+$442

14 days+$442

30 days+$442

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+58.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+74.7%	+58.1%	44%	44%	+40.4%
≤30d	18	+74.7%	+58.1%	44%	44%	+40.4%
≤90d	18	+74.7%	+58.1%	44%	44%	+40.4%
all	19	+75.6%	+58.9%	47%	47%	+48.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+58.9%	47%	+48.2%
10%	+43.7%	47%	+34.0%
15%	+29.8%	47%	+21.1%
20%	+17.1%	47%	+9.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +76% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +155% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$112 vs −$35 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

438d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$634

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage438d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 18	$103	+$54	+53%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$61	+$41	+67%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$70	−$68	-97%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 17	$45	−$20	-44%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-96%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	−$19	-96%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$44	+$31	+70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$54	+$35	+65%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$54	−$52	-97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$51	+$116	+228%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$13	−$12	-96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$25	−$25	-97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$51	−$49	-97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$41	+80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$40	+$96	+239%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$43	−$42	-97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$25	+$373	+1488%
Florida vs. Houston	Apr 08	$240	+$222	+92%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	SELL Canada	97¢	$157	46m
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Canada	62¢	$103	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL Yes	53¢	$103	2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	30¢	$61	3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	29¢	$35	23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$35	24h
Spread: England (-1.5)	SELL England	19¢	$25	26h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	32¢	$45	28h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	30h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$20	30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	83¢	$75	44h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	47¢	$44	45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	81¢	$89	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	47¢	$54	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	25¢	$54	2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$167	3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$51	3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5	BUY Under	46¢	$51	3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$13	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	34¢	$25	3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	38¢	$51	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	97¢	$92	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$136	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$40	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	46¢	$43	4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$398	5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$25	5d
Florida vs. Houston	BUY Florida	52¢	$240	437d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records