Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc6d…7aae crypto 507 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,188 (-5%) realized −$2,185 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%147W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days−$297
14 days−$323
30 days−$978
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,969
other 4% −$334
world 2% −$379
sports 1% −$219
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.2% -12.4% 28% 28% -20.1%
≤30d 125 -15.1% -23.2% 22% 22% -23.1%
≤90d 333 -36.9% -42.9% 17% 17% -37.9%
all 506 -7.3% -16.1% 29% 29% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 29% -15.6%
10% -24.1% 29% -23.7%
15% -31.5% 28% -31.0%
20% -38.2% 28% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$80 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$2,185
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses147 / 359
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)506 / 507
History coverage118d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $105 $102 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$106 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $231 −$228 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $340 −$333 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$81 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $85 −$81 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $68 −$64 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$188 +405%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$139 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $78 −$74 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $71 −$67 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$51 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $98 +$177 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $56 −$53 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $67 −$64 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $67 +$214 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$49 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$124 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$63 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $39 −$37 -95%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $60 −$58 -97%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $243 +$265 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$154 +538%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$11 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 03 $28 +$70 +248%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $108 23m
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $206 29m
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $231 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $340 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $49 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $49 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $49 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $49 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $49 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $49 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $28 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $49 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.72 · official $101.72 (match) · 1055 history records