Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc70…4ac2 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$485 (-38%) realized −$485 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$156
14 days−$224
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$348
politics 32% −$181
sports 9% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.9% -67.3% 25% 25% -78.9%
≤30d 6 -54.7% -59.0% 33% 17% -50.3%
≤90d 71 -25.8% -32.9% 30% 28% -45.8%
all 71 -25.8% -32.9% 30% 28% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 28% -45.8%
10% -39.3% 28% -51.0%
15% -45.2% 25% -55.7%
20% -50.6% 24% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$485
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage72d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 +$10 +28%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$13 -84%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $113 −$112 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $103 −$82 -80%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $192 +$14 +7%
Will FC Cajamarca vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? May 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-15? May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Will CD Garcilaso win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $15 +$12 +76%
Will CD Garcilaso vs. Club Alianza Atlético end in a draw? May 11 $5 −$3 -66%
Will CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. FBC Melgar end in a draw? May 11 $6 +$13 +216%
Will Cusco FC vs. CD Los Chankas end in a draw? May 11 $2 +$5 +237%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? May 09 $10 +$3 +28%
Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CD Moquegua vs. AD Tarma end in a draw? May 09 $4 −$1 -15%
Will CD Los Chankas win on 2026-05-10? May 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? May 08 $4 $0 -8%
Will CD Comerciantes Unidos win on 2026-05-10? May 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Will AD Tarma win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $10 +$6 +57%
Will CU Técnica de Cajamarca win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CU Técnica de Cajamarca vs. FC Cajamarca end in a draw? May 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Will CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw? May 08 $8 −$2 -28%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $10 −$8 -82%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $25 +$27 +105%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? May 07 $5 +$6 +109%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $10 +$12 +118%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $9 −$2 -18%
Will CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football end in a draw? May 07 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw? May 07 $3 +$7 +216%
Will Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw? May 07 $4 +$9 +216%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $10 +$43 +423%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $8 −$3 -36%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $7 −$6 -80%
Will Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw? May 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-05? May 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will ADC Juan Pablo II College vs. Club Universitario de Deportes end May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will ADC Juan Pablo II College win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Cajamarca win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $10 +$11 +109%
Will AD Tarma win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $10 +$6 +62%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC end in a dr Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes vs. Club Nacional de Football end Apr 30 $7 −$3 -38%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $5 +$5 +106%
Will Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? Apr 30 $3 +$6 +193%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 35m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $44 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 4h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 13h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 13h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 6¢ $21 8d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 28¢ $51 9d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 29¢ $51 9d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 71¢ $58 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 60¢ $51 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 57¢ $87 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 27¢ $43 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 29¢ $60 10d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 45¢ $98 11d
Will FC Cajamarca vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 36d
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 36d
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 37d
Will CD Garcilaso win on 2026-05-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 37d
Will CD Garcilaso vs. Club Alianza Atlético end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 37d
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 38d
Will CD Garcilaso vs. Club Alianza Atlético end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 38d
Will CD Garcilaso win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 38d
Will CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. FBC Melgar end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 38d
Will Cusco FC vs. CD Los Chankas end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 38d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? SELL Yes 71¢ $13 39d
Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 39d
Will CD Moquegua vs. AD Tarma end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.19 · official $15.19 (match) · 135 history records