Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CC 0xcc71…c16b world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2
other 20% +$21
politics 14% −$2
sports 13% +$1
economics 11% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 10% -8.4%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 31% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 24 +2.2% -7.5% 38% 12% -8.4%
all 45 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 9% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 9% -8.4%
10% -17.0% 4% -17.2%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.37 per $1 lost it wins $4.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage486d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $51 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $32 +$1 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 +$4 +24%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $41 −$1 -4%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $37 +$1 +2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $59 +$17 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $220 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $219 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $219 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $222 −$2 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 01 $13 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $2 $0 -23%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 07 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Apr 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Mar 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Kings vs. Nuggets Mar 06 $13 $0 +3%
San José State vs. Colorado State Mar 06 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? Mar 04 $12 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $33 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $3 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $29 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $47 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $46 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $25 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $39 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records