Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc72…2888 sports 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,037 (-17%) realized −$3,220 · open +$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate44%25W / 32L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5,423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,682
7 days−$3,438
14 days−$3,451
30 days−$3,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$3,055
other 31% −$209
world 6% +$16
crypto 1% +$46
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -43.4% -48.8% 49% 24% -35.4%
≤30d 52 -44.6% -49.8% 44% 23% -35.3%
≤90d 54 -46.6% -51.7% 43% 22% -35.4%
all 57 -38.7% -44.5% 44% 25% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 25% -34.7%
10% -49.8% 18% -40.9%
15% -54.7% 11% -46.6%
20% -59.1% 7% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -30% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$150 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$5,423
Realized−$3,220
Unrealized+$183
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses25 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions20
Markets (closed)57 / 77
History coverage124d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 44¢ 50¢ $1,127 $1,292 +$165 (+15%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,138 $1,142 +$4 (+0%)
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 2 IR Iran? No 95¢ 95¢ $820 $819 −$0 (-0%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 57¢ $584 $573 −$11 (-2%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 84¢ $480 $488 +$9 (+2%)
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $227 $243 +$16 (+7%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Belgium? No 100¢ 99¢ $169 $169 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? No 98¢ 98¢ $167 $167 +$1 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Over 91¢ 92¢ $155 $156 +$1 (+1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Argentina 21¢ 20¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 3 IR Iran? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Belgium? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+21%)
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Over 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Argentina? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Spread: New Zealand (-5.5) New Zealand 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1,711 +$835 +49%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1,421 +$81 +6%
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $480 +$17 +4%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $156 +$78 +50%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $38 +$10 +27%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $23 −$22 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $491 −$481 -98%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $86 −$84 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $87 −$85 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 −$2 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $18 −$17 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $697 −$692 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $283 +$8 +3%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $79 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $414 +$10 +2%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $499 +$31 +6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $240 +$57 +24%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,164 −$1,149 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$9 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $14 −$14 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $128 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $46 +$25 +55%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $255 −$248 -97%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $40 +$4 +11%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $127 +$29 +23%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $39 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 25 $345 +$55 +16%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $4 +$1 +24%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 3 Haiti? Jun 25 $97 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 25 $1,069 +$31 +3%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1,132 −$1,120 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $415 −$410 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $318 −$315 -99%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$25 +150%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 7¢ $233 0m
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 2 IR Iran? BUY No 95¢ $821 7m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $3 21m
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 21m
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $71 21m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Belgium? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 27m
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 3 IR Iran? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 96¢ $58 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 4h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $17 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $41 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $9 4h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $260 4h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Belgium? BUY No 98¢ $167 4h
Spread: New Zealand (-5.5) BUY New Zealand 0¢ $1 4h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $155 4h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $73 4h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Belgium? BUY No 100¢ $169 4h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 96¢ $125 5h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $482 5h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Belgium? BUY No 96¢ $955 6h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 7h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 7h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $14 7h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $23 7h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $292 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,423.31 · official $5,423.31 (match) · 283 history records