Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc77…d4ba other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$419 (-39%) realized −$445 · open +$26
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$7
sports 8% −$13
crypto 3% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +87.4% +69.6% 12% 12% -11.0%
≤30d 11 +44.6% +30.8% 9% 9% -16.9%
≤90d 11 +44.6% +30.8% 9% 9% -16.9%
all 11 +44.6% +30.8% 9% 9% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.8% 9% -16.9%
10% +18.3% 9% -24.8%
15% +6.9% 9% -32.1%
20% -3.6% 9% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$417 vs −$49 · ×8.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$445
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage41d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $57 $84 +$27 (+47%)
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Paddy Pimblett 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $28 −$27 -99%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 27 $104 −$84 -81%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 25 $101 −$79 -79%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 23 $31 +$417 +1352%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 02 $31 −$30 -97%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $367 −$33 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? BUY $20 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 34¢ $20 1h
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card BUY Paddy Pimblett 44¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 19¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 3d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 88¢ $2 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 4d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 18¢ $20 5d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY $31 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 21¢ $2 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $57 23d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 27d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 27d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $2 37d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $141 37d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $143 38d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 41d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $222 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.10 · official $172.19 · 56 history records