Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xcc7c…1d18 politics 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,134 (+1%) realized +$3,766 · open −$2,632
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%70W / 89L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$723per market
Trades / day124.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$9,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$2,427
world 27% +$127
other 7% −$2,152
tech 4% +$18
sports 2% −$465
economics 2% −$78
finance 0% +$85
crypto 0% +$60
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -50.9% -55.6% 28% 22% -41.3%
≤30d 159 -25.5% -32.6% 44% 27% -13.8%
≤90d 159 -25.5% -32.6% 44% 27% -13.8%
all 159 -25.5% -32.6% 44% 27% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.6% 27% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 14% -22.0%
15% -45.0% 11% -29.6%
20% -50.4% 8% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$75 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$9,105
Realized+$3,766
Unrealized−$2,632
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses70 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions65
Markets (closed)159 / 149
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$723
Trades / day124.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 51¢ 44¢ $8,674 $7,363 −$1,311 (-15%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 74¢ 69¢ $369 $345 −$24 (-6%)
Will Shannon Bird be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $240 $180 −$60 (-25%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Yes 39¢ 12¢ $547 $169 −$378 (-69%)
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $155 $150 −$5 (-3%)
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? Yes 42¢ 14¢ $389 $126 −$263 (-68%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? Yes 81¢ 57¢ $162 $115 −$47 (-29%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+5%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 21¢ $193 $64 −$129 (-67%)
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $28 $30 +$3 (+9%)
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? No 7¢ 5¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-28%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-18%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 91¢ 26¢ $73 $21 −$52 (-71%)
Will Taylor Swift perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $56 $18 −$38 (-68%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $220 $12 −$208 (-94%)
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $36 $8 −$28 (-78%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 29 $52 −$56 -107%
Will Markéta Vondroušová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $5 −$3 -61%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Armenia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -88%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $14 −$10 -66%
Will Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -90%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Georgia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -70%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 −$7 -75%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 29 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 29 $15 −$13 -85%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $5 −$2 -33%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Jun 29 $20 −$6 -28%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Norway be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 29 $1 $0 -21%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $5 −$1 -28%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 29 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Marin Cilic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 29 $12 −$11 -93%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 29 $10 +$4 +40%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $7 −$5 -74%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 −$12 -120%
Will Danielle Collins win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 29 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Sebastian Korda win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Jun 29 $7 $0 -6%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Will San Marino be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 29 $11 −$9 -83%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $15 −$13 -84%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Denis Shapovalov win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $13 −$12 -92%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $9 −$6 -67%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Jun 29 $25 −$23 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40m
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R BUY Yes 0¢ $0 40m
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46m
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 52m
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 52m
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 2h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe SELL Yes 29¢ $145 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $50 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $17 4h
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $364 9h
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,104.53 · official $9,104.44 (match) · 3500 history records