Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc7d…5a50 sports 189 markets active 3h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%10W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3
other 25% −$3
politics 21% −$2
economics 8% −$1
crypto 7% $0
world 7% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 188 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses10 / 178
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage164d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $32 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 24 $74 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $191 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $4 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $266 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $305 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $113 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $136 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $126 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $212 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $114 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $117 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $25 2h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $27 11d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $27 12d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 24d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $32 24d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $25 31d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $25 34d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $38 114d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $38 114d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 115d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 115d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 115d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 115d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $37 115d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $37 115d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $33 115d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $33 115d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $38 115d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $38 115d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 115d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 115d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 96¢ $4 115d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $4 115d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 115d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 115d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $31 115d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $31 115d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $37 115d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 115d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $33 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.36 · official $25.36 (match) · 715 history records