Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CC 0xcc80…1d24 crypto 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$416 (-4%) realized −$416 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%110W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$33
14 days+$203
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$197
other 15% +$477
sports 8% −$523
world 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +25.1% +13.2% 26% 26% -7.7%
≤30d 56 +25.5% +13.5% 32% 32% -8.3%
≤90d 65 +25.1% +13.2% 34% 34% -8.1%
all 249 +7.7% -2.6% 44% 43% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 43% -8.7%
10% -11.9% 41% -17.4%
15% -20.4% 37% -25.4%
20% -28.2% 34% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$37 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$416
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses110 / 139
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 252
History coverage111d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions (120 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 −$15 -60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $31 +$375 +1215%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $29 −$28 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $46 −$44 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$21 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$36 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $61 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $69 −$68 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$69 +165%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$96 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $147 −$112 -76%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$201 +474%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $79 +$46 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $71 −$68 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $45 −$43 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$31 +124%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$47 +204%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$34 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $49 −$47 -95%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $135 −$47 -35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$274 +947%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$120 +238%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$37 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $59 +$60 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$54 +255%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$63 +155%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $47 +$94 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 25m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21 BUY 4¢ $18 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $22 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $29 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 7¢ $33 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 26¢ $26 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 7¢ $12 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 7¢ $31 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $60 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $35 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $38 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $16 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $37 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $32 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $69 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $42 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $17 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $20 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $17.59 · 439 history records