Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc86…3ca9 world 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$43 (-17%) realized −$44 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$22
14 days−$49
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$29
other 28% −$19
sports 18% −$10
politics 12% −$28
crypto 6% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -44.5% -49.8% 33% 33% -32.3%
≤30d 19 -36.8% -42.9% 42% 37% -30.1%
≤90d 19 -36.8% -42.9% 42% 37% -30.1%
all 19 -36.8% -42.9% 42% 37% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 37% -30.1%
10% -48.3% 32% -36.8%
15% -53.3% 21% -42.9%
20% -57.9% 21% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)19 / 26
History coverage22d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 76¢ 83¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 31¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries Indiana Fever 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) Belal Muhammad 50¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 47¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 47¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $15 +$3 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -78%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $19 +$12 +63%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $19 −$18 -90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $2 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $16 −$15 -98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 03 $11 −$11 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $13 +$8 +59%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $31 +$6 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $3 +$1 +24%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $6 +$5 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 28m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 36m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 47m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 99¢ $3 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $7 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $15 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 61¢ $19 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 47¢ $2 5d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 31¢ $2 7d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 50¢ $16 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 45¢ $19 9d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 31¢ $11 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 81¢ $3 16d
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Indiana Fever 28¢ $1 16d
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $31 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $13 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.62 · official $63.62 (match) · 39 history records