Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc88…06dc world 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 410d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%46W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$10
world 26% +$2
politics 16% −$20
sports 8% −$4
crypto 6% +$2
economics 5% −$1
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 2% $0
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 +0.1% -9.5% 41% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -2.6% -11.9% 32% 1% -9.4%
all 130 -1.9% -11.3% 35% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -9.9%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

410d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses46 / 84
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage410d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $177 −$1 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $87 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $142 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $42 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $143 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $169 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $84 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $55 −$5 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $47 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $2 $0 -6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $105 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $85 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $42 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $92 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $42 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $48 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $47 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $52 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $47 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $16 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $51 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $51 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $44 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $44 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.69 · official $47.58 (match) · 514 history records