Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc8e…944e world 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$527 (+3%) realized +$144 · open +$383
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%48W / 79L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2,112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$103
7 days−$143
14 days−$143
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$799
other 40% −$642
sports 8% +$446
politics 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.6% -4.4% 33% 33% -15.4%
≤30d 21 +2.4% -7.4% 38% 33% -13.1%
≤90d 92 -22.1% -29.5% 36% 30% -19.9%
all 127 -0.6% -10.0% 38% 31% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 31% -8.0%
10% -18.6% 24% -16.8%
15% -26.5% 20% -24.8%
20% -33.7% 16% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$57 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$2,112
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$383
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses48 / 79
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions7
Markets (closed)127 / 134
History coverage160d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $447 $709 +$263 (+59%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $323 $474 +$150 (+46%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $282 $288 +$6 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $270 $275 +$5 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $170 $165 −$5 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $117 $116 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $85 −$35 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $153 −$151 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $152 +$148 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $457 −$456 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $106 −$7 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $253 −$20 -8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $213 −$213 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $150 +$168 +112%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $155 −$3 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $117 −$116 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $249 +$281 +113%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $124 +$326 +262%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $161 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $159 +$12 +8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $34 +$15 +42%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $54 +$96 +180%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $124 −$123 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 −$6 -18%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $100 −$2 -2%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $156 +$84 +54%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $122 +$18 +14%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $100 −$82 -82%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $200 +$21 +11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $36 +$64 +180%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $56 +$44 +79%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $62 +$1 +1%
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5 May 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $57 −$45 -79%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 May 17 $41 +$59 +146%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $44 −$21 -49%
SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 May 16 $50 +$70 +140%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $67 +$33 +50%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $44 −$44 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $66 −$48 -73%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5 May 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5 May 16 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $136 +$42 +31%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $109 +$26 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $90 +$19 +21%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw? May 04 $13 −$13 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $198 −$198 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Apr 22 $106 −$76 -72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $218 −$123 -56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $211 −$86 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $225 +$75 +33%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 19 $98 −$15 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $153 26h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $282 37h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 50¢ $152 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $130 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $78 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,112.22 · official $2,112.22 (match) · 966 history records