Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xcc8e…4a01 crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$183 (-6%) realized −$208 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$467
other 8% +$135
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -22.8% -30.2% 19% 19% -20.1%
≤30d 64 -22.8% -30.2% 19% 19% -20.1%
≤90d 67 -26.3% -33.3% 18% 18% -20.3%
all 67 -26.3% -33.3% 18% 18% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 18% -20.3%
10% -39.7% 16% -27.9%
15% -45.5% 16% -34.9%
20% -50.9% 16% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$28 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$208
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage48d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 5¢ 28¢ $5 $30 +$25 (+494%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$89 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$51 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $310 −$46 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$87 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $209 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$164 +617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $110 +$225 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $112 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$113 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $106 +$377 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$29 +543%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$91 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $54 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.68 · official $31.78 · 112 history records