Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xcc8f…b5d6
other · 133 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
−$428 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$423 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$423
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses56 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)114 / 133
History coverage444d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 19 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Honório Augusto Lopes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? No 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs GamerLegion 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$18 +1749%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $157 +$17 +11%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 +$7 +40%
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $135 +$18 +13%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $147 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 19 $4 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs May 19 $135 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 18 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 18 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 18 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur May 18 $118 +$31 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $122 −$2 -2%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $74 +$18 +24%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $13 −$13 -96%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $15 −$2 -14%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $113 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 38% +$366
politics 32% −$1,226
other 26% +$486
world 2% −$31
crypto 1% −$10
economics 0% −$10
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $19 6m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $174 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 90¢ $157 5h
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? BUY No 4¢ $1 7h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $24 24h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 24h
Will Grimes be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $77 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 95¢ $74 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $135 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No 1¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $147 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $147 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +216.7% +186.5% 57% 57% +6.5%
≤30d 50 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 36% -2.3%
≤90d 50 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 36% -2.3%
all 114 -4.8% -13.8% 49% 29% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 29% -12.0%
10% -22.1% 13% -20.5%
15% -29.6% 5% -28.1%
20% -36.5% 4% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.60 · official $14.40 (match) · 310 history records