Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc92…649d sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,929 (-28%) realized −$10,648 · open +$2,719
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 23L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$899per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$670est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,722now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,065
7 days−$11,871
14 days−$7,850
30 days−$7,850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -54.5% -58.8% 17% 11% -79.4%
≤30d 30 +33.4% +20.7% 23% 20% -41.5%
≤90d 30 +33.4% +20.7% 23% 20% -41.5%
all 30 +33.4% +20.7% 23% 20% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.7% 20% -41.5%
10% +9.1% 20% -47.1%
15% ← realistic here -1.4% 20% -52.2%
20% -11.1% 20% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$1,227) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +112% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,610 vs −$831 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$4,722
Realized−$10,648
Unrealized+$2,719
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$670
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage14d
Avg bet$899
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Ozan Baris 42¢ 100¢ $2,003 $4,722 +$2,719 (+136%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim Jun 17 $998 +$1,498 +150%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $1,340 −$1,311 -98%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $1,251 −$1,229 -98%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul Jun 17 $253 −$247 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Jun 17 $395 −$386 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $194 −$190 -98%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 11 $217 −$212 -98%
ITF Los Angeles: Alexis Nguyen vs Lily Taylor Jun 11 $124 +$447 +362%
ITF Los Angeles: Marcel Latak vs Nathan Trouve Jun 11 $569 −$555 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Nao Nishino Jun 11 $1,125 −$1,100 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Shu Matsuoka vs Naoya Honda Jun 11 $964 −$947 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Gaeul Jang vs Natsuki Yoshimoto Jun 11 $1,818 −$1,781 -98%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 11 $878 −$859 -98%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $409 +$30 +7%
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito Jun 11 $1,963 −$1,929 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1,963 −$1,935 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $982 −$966 -98%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $1,454 +$3,540 +244%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Dimitris Azoidis Jun 06 $713 +$1,164 +163%
ITF Focsani: Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni vs Sophie Greiner Jun 06 $1,227 +$3,571 +291%
ITF Szentendre: Vladyslav Orlov vs Peter Makk Jun 06 $667 −$651 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Lidia Encheva vs Natalija Senic Jun 06 $99 −$97 -98%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Lorenzo Bocchi vs Daniil Sarksian Jun 06 $1,184 −$1,164 -98%
ITF Luan: Hanyi Liu vs Yaojie Zeng Jun 06 $619 −$607 -98%
ITF Harmon: Youssef Kadiri Hassani vs Hiromasa Koyama Jun 06 $1,342 −$1,315 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $478 −$472 -99%
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 05 $513 +$1,017 +198%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $820 −$805 -98%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $980 −$161 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais SELL Ozan Baris 96¢ $96 13m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais SELL Ozan Baris 96¢ $95 13m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 41¢ $10 46m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 41¢ $181 47m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 41¢ $204 47m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 41¢ $204 47m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 41¢ $204 47m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 41¢ $102 48m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 41¢ $204 48m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 41¢ $204 48m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 42¢ $203 48m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 48¢ $102 49m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 45¢ $102 49m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 45¢ $102 50m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 45¢ $102 50m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 47¢ $102 51m
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Ozan Baris 46¢ $102 53m
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim SELL Ilyas Milad Fahim 99¢ $396 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim SELL Ilyas Milad Fahim 99¢ $495 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim SELL Ilyas Milad Fahim 99¢ $594 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim SELL Ilyas Milad Fahim 99¢ $516 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim SELL Ilyas Milad Fahim 99¢ $495 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim BUY Ilyas Milad Fahim 44¢ $20 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim BUY Ilyas Milad Fahim 39¢ $10 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim BUY Ilyas Milad Fahim 38¢ $102 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim BUY Ilyas Milad Fahim 38¢ $102 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim BUY Ilyas Milad Fahim 44¢ $51 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim BUY Ilyas Milad Fahim 39¢ $102 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim BUY Ilyas Milad Fahim 39¢ $102 1h
ITF Tulsa: James Trotter vs Ilyas Milad Fahim BUY Ilyas Milad Fahim 39¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,721.69 · official $4,721.69 (match) · 433 history records