Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc92…8d1d other 410 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,562 (-2%) realized −$2,708 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate45%185W / 223L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$841
14 days−$1,438
30 days−$2,115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$2,469
sports 5% −$11
crypto 3% −$274
world 1% +$44
weather 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +3.4% -6.4% 62% 42% -15.5%
≤30d 198 -21.6% -29.1% 49% 27% -12.2%
≤90d 408 -15.6% -23.6% 45% 26% -12.6%
all 408 -15.6% -23.6% 45% 26% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 26% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 17% -21.0%
15% -37.6% 11% -28.6%
20% -43.7% 7% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$41 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$2,708
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses185 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)408 / 410
History coverage47d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Lynn Vision 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $488 $0 −$488 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Egypt vs. Russia end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Granada CF win on 2026-05-30? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $174 −$105 -60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $368 −$196 -53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $497 −$110 -22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $983 −$4 -0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $240 +$262 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $660 −$420 -64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $434 +$226 +52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $370 +$65 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $173 +$197 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $111 +$62 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,259 −$520 -41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $537 +$95 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $516 +$21 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,118 −$151 -14%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $494 −$488 -99%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,090 −$122 -11%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $610 +$6 +1%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $511 +$99 +19%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $818 +$98 +12%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $382 +$32 +8%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $469 +$1 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $362 +$19 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $321 +$41 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $268 +$53 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $252 +$15 +6%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $224 +$29 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $755 −$533 -71%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $719 +$37 +5%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $936 −$216 -23%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $28 +$8 +29%
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $838 +$90 +11%
Will Australia vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $693 +$144 +21%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $660 +$33 +5%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $543 +$117 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,236 −$186 -15%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $508 +$38 +7%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $514 +$174 +34%
Will Angola vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 05 $442 +$70 +16%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $479 +$14 +3%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $461 +$18 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $346 +$116 +33%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $329 +$16 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $605 −$276 -46%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $539 +$27 +5%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $117 −$116 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $2 54m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $66 54m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $69 55m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $172 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $172 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $368 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $367 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $386 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $387 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $497 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $481 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $481 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $503 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $503 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $240 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $240 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $660 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $660 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $434 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $435 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $370 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $173 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $173 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $111 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $110 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $631 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 21¢ $629 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $629 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.85 · official $66.85 (match) · 1183 history records