trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | -8.0% | -16.7% | 40% | 27% | -19.2% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -8.0% | -16.7% | 40% | 27% | -19.2% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -8.0% | -16.7% | 40% | 27% | -19.2% |
| all | 26 | -6.2% | -15.1% | 46% | 23% | -14.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.1% | 23% | -14.5% |
| 10% | -23.3% | 12% | -22.7% |
| 15% | -30.7% | 8% | -30.2% |
| 20% | -37.5% | 4% | -37.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | No | 78¢ | 76¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 0.5 | Over | 76¢ | 76¢ | $15 | $15 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 | Over | 69¢ | 69¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance | Jun 29 | $111 | −$29 | -26% |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 29 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 | Jun 29 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 29 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | Jun 29 | $141 | −$17 | -12% |
| Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 29 | $127 | +$6 | +5% |
| Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Paraguay? | Jun 29 | $10 | +$1 | +14% |
| Paraguay leading at halftime? | Jun 29 | $20 | +$3 | +14% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Jun 29 | $40 | +$26 | +65% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Jun 29 | $30 | −$22 | -73% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Jun 29 | $30 | −$1 | -4% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | Jun 29 | $10 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Jun 29 | $20 | −$1 | -4% |
| South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance | Jun 29 | $30 | +$5 | +16% |
| Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 28 | $10 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Mar 26 | $150 | +$49 | +32% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 26 | $114 | +$54 | +47% |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Aw | Mar 26 | $20 | −$6 | -30% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 26 | $80 | −$42 | -52% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 12 | $30 | +$2 | +8% |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Mar 10 | $10 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 10 | $135 | −$64 | -48% |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7? | Mar 09 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | Mar 09 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Mar 05 | $50 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 05 | $33 | $0 | -0% |