Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CC 0xcc98…4f73 crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$356 (+12%) realized +$358 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate96%53W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 51% $0
crypto 38% +$24
sports 11% +$333
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 41 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 2% -7.1%
≤90d 51 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 2% -7.5%
all 55 +2.6% -7.2% 96% 5% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 5% +1.5%
10% -16.1% 4% -8.2%
15% -24.2% 4% -17.1%
20% -31.6% 4% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×99.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5253.28 per $1 lost it wins $5253.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$358
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses53 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage145d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 10? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $105 on May 29? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 on May 29? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 25? May 26 $12 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 26 $20 +$20 +100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 23? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 23? May 25 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 21? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 23 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 22? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21? May 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 20? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 25h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $31 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $32 19d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $30 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.99 · official $42.99 (match) · 115 history records