Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc99…1cc4 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-32%) realized −$237 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$2
14 days−$57
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$164
sports 17% −$12
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.2% -18.7% 42% 42% -12.3%
≤30d 33 -34.5% -40.7% 33% 30% -55.4%
≤90d 33 -34.5% -40.7% 33% 30% -55.4%
all 33 -34.5% -40.7% 33% 30% -55.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 30% -55.4%
10% -46.4% 30% -59.6%
15% -51.6% 30% -63.5%
20% -56.3% 15% -67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage16d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $82 +$32 (+64%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$8 +154%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 +$2 +42%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 $0 -9%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$2 +48%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$6 +109%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$8 -39%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$79 -70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 24h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $13 45h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 46h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots BUY No 34¢ $5 3d
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY 24¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY 22¢ $31 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 12¢ $1 6d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 6d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $5 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 8d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.40 · official $217.52 (match) · 58 history records