Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:29:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CC
0xcc9a…40a6
weather · 36 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$1 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$15
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions11
Markets (closed)25 / 36
History coverage9d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 11 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Yes 78¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Yes 81¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Yes 38¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Yes 64¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Yes 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Yes 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$1
other 5% $0
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 92¢ $9 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $13 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 89¢ $9 47h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 47h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? SELL No 43¢ $8 47h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 88¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 38% -8.0%
≤30d 25 -10.4% -18.9% 52% 36% -8.9%
≤90d 25 -10.4% -18.9% 52% 36% -8.9%
all 25 -10.4% -18.9% 52% 36% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 36% -8.9%
10% -26.7% 16% -17.7%
15% -33.8% 12% -25.6%
20% -40.3% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.38 · official $15.23 (match) · 61 history records