Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcc9b…f2c6 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$361 (-23%) realized −$359 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$196
14 days−$220
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$41
sports 32% −$214
world 11% −$171
economics 2% +$6
crypto 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -24.7% -31.9% 14% 14% -38.3%
≤30d 44 -18.6% -26.3% 20% 20% -30.6%
≤90d 48 -19.4% -27.1% 21% 21% -31.6%
all 50 -20.1% -27.7% 22% 22% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 22% -36.5%
10% -34.6% 20% -42.6%
15% -41.0% 14% -48.1%
20% -46.7% 12% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$20 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$359
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage308d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $259 $257 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$61 +596%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $28 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$44 +44%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $43 −$42 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $7 +$4 +54%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $31 +$46 +152%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 +$106 +1290%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$15 +474%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 +$7 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $154 +$41 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $35 +$65 +186%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $12 −$12 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $134 −$106 -79%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 10 $35 +$6 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $260 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $28 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 29h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $43 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $46 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.16 · official $269.16 (match) · 76 history records