Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CC 0xcca0…1d3e politics 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,617 (+283%) realized +$1,617 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +268% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +233% what you keep after slip
Net edge+233%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% +$1,709
sports 4% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+233.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +371.9% +326.9% 100% 100% +326.9%
≤30d 3 +268.3% +233.2% 100% 100% +266.5%
≤90d 3 +268.3% +233.2% 100% 100% +266.5%
all 3 +268.3% +233.2% 100% 100% +266.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +233.2% 100% +266.5%
10% +201.3% 100% +231.4%
15% +172.2% 100% +199.4%
20% +145.5% 100% +170.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +305% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +268% · $-wt +305% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$581 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,617
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage96d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $157 +$585 +372%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $391 +$1,124 +288%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $24 +$34 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records