Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcca1…f92a other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 80% −$14
politics 14% −$16
other 4% −$4
sports 1% −$41
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 37 -13.4% -21.7% 19% 8% -13.3%
all 45 -11.0% -19.5% 22% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 7% -9.9%
10% -27.2% 7% -18.5%
15% -34.2% 7% -26.4%
20% -40.7% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage553d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $9 +$9 +97%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$7 +62%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $43 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Flames vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $8 +$3 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +1%
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 06 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $13,538 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $2,227 −$16 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 20d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 21d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $13 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 27d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 28d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 28d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 30d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 30d
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $9 33d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 35d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 35d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 61¢ $10 39d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 41d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 41d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 42d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 42d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.33 · official $35.33 (match) · 194 history records