Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcca3…a60d other 19 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$45 (-34%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$46
sports 28% −$1
world 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-70.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -74.7% -77.1% 0% 0% -54.3%
≤30d 19 -67.1% -70.3% 0% 0% -41.5%
≤90d 19 -67.1% -70.3% 0% 0% -41.5%
all 19 -67.1% -70.3% 0% 0% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.3% 0% -41.5%
10% -73.1% 0% -47.1%
15% -75.7% 0% -52.2%
20% -78.1% 0% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Noah Okafor: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Nico Elvedi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Michel Aebischer: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Manuel Akanji: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Karim Boudiaf: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Owen Goodman: 4+ saves Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Owen Goodman: 5+ saves Jun 12 $4 −$4 -93%
Benjamin Tahirović: 1+ goals + assists Jun 12 $1 −$1 -47%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots on target Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Alphonso Davies: 2+ shots on target Jun 12 $4 −$4 -93%
Bae Junho: 5+ shots Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Alexis Vega: 3+ goals Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Gilberto Mora: 3+ goals Jun 11 $16 −$11 -69%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $38 −$1 -2%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists SELL No 3¢ $0 4d
Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 97¢ $2 4d
Noah Okafor: 4+ goals + assists SELL No 4¢ $0 4d
Noah Okafor: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Nico Elvedi: 4+ goals + assists SELL No 4¢ $0 4d
Nico Elvedi: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 97¢ $2 4d
Michel Aebischer: 4+ goals + assists SELL No 3¢ $0 4d
Michel Aebischer: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Manuel Akanji: 4+ goals + assists SELL No 4¢ $0 4d
Manuel Akanji: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Karim Boudiaf: 4+ goals + assists SELL No 4¢ $0 4d
Karim Boudiaf: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists SELL No 3¢ $0 4d
Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL No 99¢ $14 4d
Owen Goodman: 4+ saves SELL No 6¢ $0 5d
Owen Goodman: 4+ saves BUY No 98¢ $4 5d
Owen Goodman: 5+ saves SELL No 7¢ $0 5d
Owen Goodman: 5+ saves BUY No 98¢ $4 5d
Benjamin Tahirović: 1+ goals + assists SELL No 53¢ $1 5d
Benjamin Tahirović: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 97¢ $1 5d
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots on target SELL No 6¢ $0 5d
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots on target BUY No 98¢ $3 5d
Alphonso Davies: 2+ shots on target SELL No 7¢ $0 5d
Alphonso Davies: 2+ shots on target BUY No 98¢ $4 5d
Bae Junho: 5+ shots SELL No 1¢ $0 5d
Bae Junho: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $14 5d
Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Gilberto Mora: 3+ goals SELL No 32¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records