Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcca7…33ad crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-13%) realized −$15 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 43% -16.8%
≤30d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 43% -16.8%
≤90d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 43% -16.8%
all 23 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 43% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 43% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 39% -24.7%
15% -25.7% 35% -32.0%
20% -33.0% 30% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 47¢ 6¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.18 · official $11.22 · 70 history records