Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xcca9…4c9f world 199 markets active 10h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,952 (-2%) realized −$5,184 · open −$3,768
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%78W / 66L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,154per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$43,323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$36,196
other 17% +$5,518
politics 5% −$1,728
finance 2% +$3,321
sports 0% −$523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -6.1% -15.0% 33% 33% -59.4%
≤30d 66 -13.8% -22.0% 52% 44% -26.2%
≤90d 144 +8.3% -2.0% 54% 43% -16.6%
all 144 +8.3% -2.0% 54% 43% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 43% -16.6%
10% -11.4% 31% -24.6%
15% ← realistic here -20.0% 23% -31.9%
20% -27.8% 13% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$705 vs −$1,224 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$43,323
Realized−$5,184
Unrealized−$3,768
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses78 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions66
Markets (closed)144 / 199
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$2,154
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 66 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 60¢ $14,628 $15,831 +$1,203 (+8%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 38¢ 50¢ $11,077 $14,483 +$3,405 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 55¢ 73¢ $4,145 $5,526 +$1,382 (+33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 25¢ 14¢ $4,504 $2,443 −$2,060 (-46%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 25¢ 10¢ $1,500 $633 −$866 (-58%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $366 $475 +$109 (+30%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $4,080 $418 −$3,662 (-90%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $362 $395 +$33 (+9%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 23¢ 22¢ $400 $381 −$19 (-5%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 19¢ 14¢ $509 $371 −$138 (-27%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 15¢ 4¢ $950 $263 −$687 (-72%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $226 $251 +$25 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $166 $235 +$69 (+42%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $117 $189 +$71 (+61%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $146 $160 +$14 (+9%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $180 $115 −$65 (-36%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 62¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $102 $107 +$5 (+5%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 6¢ $1,000 $90 −$910 (-91%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $97 $87 −$10 (-10%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $222 $78 −$144 (-65%)
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? No 80¢ 91¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 63¢ 70¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $10 +$18 +182%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 21 $1,126 −$409 -36%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $2,253 +$452 +20%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 19 $596 +$1,303 +219%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 19 $404 −$324 -80%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 19 $40,824 −$24,028 -59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,502 −$1,502 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $6,888 −$6,313 -92%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,869 −$545 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,223 −$60 -5%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,952 −$673 -34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3,165 −$492 -16%
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? Jun 11 $801 +$325 +40%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $720 −$40 -6%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $740 −$36 -5%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 11 $5,016 +$728 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 11 $2,108 +$1,046 +50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,200 +$420 +35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $12,981 −$12,980 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $3,047 +$704 +23%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 09 $676 −$493 -73%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 09 $216 −$216 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $5,235 −$5,235 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M Jun 08 $502 −$502 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $510 −$510 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2,702 +$140 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $23,401 +$14,299 +61%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $720 −$688 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $375 −$375 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3,715 −$125 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4,695 −$170 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $127 −$127 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 07 $4,164 +$1,770 +42%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 06 $7,659 +$826 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2,904 +$1,313 +45%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1,322 +$125 +9%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +18%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 05 $3,294 +$1,350 +41%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,858 +$324 +17%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $2,513 +$1,947 +78%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $4 +$2 +43%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1,170 +$303 +26%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $704 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $1,180 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $213 11h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 51¢ $2,705 14h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $517 27h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $206 28h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $104 28h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $516 28h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $9 28h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $206 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $14 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $3 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $1 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $3 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $3 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $1 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $9 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $1 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $1 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $3 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $907 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $1,110 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $10 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $11 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $9 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $630 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $1 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $1 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $1 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $2 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,323.31 · official $43,323.20 (match) · 3500 history records