Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccaa…740f sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-3%) realized −$48 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate69%79W / 35L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$158
14 days+$156
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$140
sports 30% +$23
tech 11% +$13
crypto 8% −$71
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +5.7% -4.3% 70% 63% +15.0%
≤30d 102 -0.4% -9.9% 70% 59% -0.5%
≤90d 114 -2.7% -12.0% 69% 56% -3.4%
all 114 -2.7% -12.0% 69% 56% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 56% -3.4%
10% -20.4% 43% -12.7%
15% -28.1% 32% -21.1%
20% -35.2% 18% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses79 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)114 / 119
History coverage40d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 86¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 53¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+56%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $216 +$153 +71%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $9 +$1 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 +$4 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 27 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19 +$11 +55%
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 26 $5 $0 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $19 +$11 +55%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 26 $84 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $16 +$4 +29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $24 +$16 +67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$4 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$4 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 +$3 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$6 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 +$8 +37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $37 +$13 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$3 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $4 +$1 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 18 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$3 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $3 +$2 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $17 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 30¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $369 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $22 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $84 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $83 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 78¢ $8 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 3d
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 93¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY Yes 68¢ $7 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.89 · official $33.78 · 242 history records