Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccac…fbca other 97 markets active 13h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-1%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$19
politics 14% −$1
sports 5% −$26
economics 4% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.2% -32.3% 0% 0% -41.4%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 12% 0% -14.6%
≤90d 96 -4.8% -13.8% 7% 3% -10.6%
all 96 -4.8% -13.8% 7% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -10.6%
10% -22.1% 3% -19.1%
15% -29.6% 3% -26.9%
20% -36.5% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 89
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage87d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $141 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $47 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 12h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $16 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 25d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.07 · official $28.07 (match) · 244 history records