Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
CC 0xccaf…761a crypto 1131 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,730 (-36%) realized −$1,730 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%801W / 330L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day84.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$78
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$292
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +10.5% -0.1% 74% 43% -12.2%
≤30d 972 -6.8% -15.7% 71% 36% -15.2%
≤90d 1131 -6.1% -15.1% 71% 37% -15.0%
all 1131 -6.1% -15.1% 71% 37% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 37% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 20% -23.1%
15% -30.6% 10% -30.5%
20% -37.4% 4% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,730
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses801 / 330
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1131 / 1131
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day84.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1131 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records