Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccb0…f72c sports 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$2
sports 27% −$4
other 20% −$3
crypto 8% −$2
culture 7% −$1
economics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 141 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage155d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 15 $49 −$1 -3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $86 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $182 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 12 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $56 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 11 $147 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte Feb 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $158 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $115 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $48 7h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 11d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 12d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $47 23d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $47 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? SELL No 93¢ $48 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $49 31d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $9 124d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $38 124d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $9 124d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $18 124d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $56 124d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $50 124d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $50 124d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $54 124d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $54 124d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $30 124d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $30 124d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $19 124d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $32 124d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $51 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $51 124d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $53 124d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 124d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 124d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 96¢ $53 124d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 96¢ $53 124d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $53 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 495 history records