Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
CC 0xccb2…bcdc sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$175 (+52%) realized +$237 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +142% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +102% what you keep after slip
Net edge+102%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$47
other 27% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+119.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +142.1% +119.1% 67% 67% +141.9%
≤30d 6 +142.1% +119.1% 67% 67% +141.9%
≤90d 6 +142.1% +119.1% 67% 67% +141.9%
all 6 +142.1% +119.1% 67% 67% +141.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +119.1% 67% +141.9%
10% +98.1% 67% +118.8%
15% +79.0% 67% +97.7%
20% +61.4% 67% +78.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +167% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +142% · $-wt +167% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$14 · ×3.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.98 per $1 lost it wins $7.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$237
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)6 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 64¢ 80¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 8¢ $60 $12 −$48 (-79%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 33¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $5 +$29 +569%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$178 +291%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $20 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $61 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? AN SELL 94¢ $34 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $27 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $240 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 14¢ $5 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $61 27h
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.30 · official $151.71 · 18 history records