Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

CC 0xccba…4e3c other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$5 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$57per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-47.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-42.1%	-47.6%	50%	50%	-13.1%
≤30d	2	-42.1%	-47.6%	50%	50%	-13.1%
≤90d	2	-42.1%	-47.6%	50%	50%	-13.1%
all	2	-42.1%	-47.6%	50%	50%	-13.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-47.6%	50%	-13.1%
10%	-52.6%	0%	-21.4%
15%	-57.2%	0%	-29.0%
20%	-61.4%	0%	-36.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -42% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.77 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$375

Realized−$5

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions7

Markets (closed)2 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$57

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	30¢	32¢	$95	$100	+$5 (+5%)
Michael Olise: 1+ goals	Yes	46¢	46¢	$61	$61	+$1 (+1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-4%)
Iraq to score first vs. France?	Yes	12¢	10¢	$50	$44	−$6 (-12%)
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals	Yes	17¢	14¢	$50	$41	−$9 (-18%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$97	+$15	+16%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 22	$20	−$20	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Michael Olise: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	46¢	$62	38m
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	39m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	86¢	$97	2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	2h
Iraq to score first vs. France?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	30¢	$97	2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$31	2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.88 · official $374.90 (match) · 10 history records