Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CC 0xccbb…3bed crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-7%) realized −$46 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%45W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$38
other 20% +$26
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 55% -15.0%
≤30d 73 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 55% -15.0%
≤90d 73 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 55% -15.0%
all 73 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 55% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 55% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 49% -23.1%
15% -30.1% 40% -30.5%
20% -37.0% 22% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses45 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $54 $61 +$7 (+12%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$17 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 45m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $54 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.32 · official $70.32 (match) · 134 history records