Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CC 0xccc3…9f1d world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1
politics 19% −$6
other 15% −$6
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.1% -4.0% 29% 14% -8.5%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 15% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 15% 8% -9.3%
all 50 -1.0% -10.5% 24% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -10.4%
10% -19.0% 4% -19.0%
15% -26.9% 4% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage268d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $58 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $54 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -20%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $7 −$1 -17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $15 −$8 -53%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 06 $25 −$6 -25%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 28 $1 $0 -31%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $4 +$2 +45%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Oct 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 28 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 05 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $27 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced by September 30? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 23 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $45 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $41 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $4 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $40 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $23 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $57 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $58 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 206 history records